• Convoy Headed into Donetsk

    The man in the video appears to be military himself, and says "this is our convoy" and "it's heading to the front."

    So it is likely going into Donetsk and could be coming from the west or south, because if it were coming from Makeyevka, it would be going from east to west.

    No other copy was found and there is snow on the ground. It is very foggy and the narrator says the trucks are coming  out of the fog.

    He mentions that there are some vehicles with anti-aircraft guns.

    I couldn't find the tree configuration along here where you actually have street view.

    But I just gave a quick look.

    Convoy to Donetsk

     

    On these types of videos, the uploader often says the convoy is Russian, and in this one, it says "Column of Russian Armor 11.01.15". Yet there is nothing to prove it is Russian.

    And I'm not sure if it were coming from that direction it would be.

     

  • Russian Armor in Krasnodon? By @Conflict_Reporter

    @Conflict_Reporter made two tweets today about a new convoy — likely Russian — in Krasnodon on January 10, 2014.

     

     

    The video is labeled Russian army convoy in Krasnodon on 10.1.2015 and the upload date is showing as 11.1.2015 due to the time difference.

     

    I don't see anything within the video to geolocate it, but I have some comments:

    1. The accents and word choice of the people in the vehicle is consistent with Russian as spoken in southeastern Ukraine.

    2. A woman mentions the killing of a DNR leader — this may be a reference to the Bednov assassination (he was actually LNR) — and she also mentions how the electricity shuts off all the time under the "militia" — this may date the video as actually being recent, along with the snow.

    3. The trees are typical of the region around Krasnodon, and the bottoms are painted the way they are in a number of Ukrainian cities.

    4. The footage contains views of trolleybus wires which are known to be present in Krasnodon.

    5. The convoy could well be from Russia as convoys often enter Ukraine from the border area around Izvarino and then pass through Krasnodon.

    6. It's been a while since an amateur video has been uploaded of a convoy. A number of recent videos have been made either by the Russian-backed separatists or by Ukrainian forces or a few pro-Kremlin journalists. This video returns us to the war in earnest, as we saw a flurry of such videos each time there were Russian invasions in the past. It means that ordinary people are feeling they must capture this event and share it.

    In the video, the woman says toward the end in desperation, seeing one armored vehicle after another go by, "Who needs this war?!" She and the others in the car make some remarks indicating unhappiness with the DNR/LNR rulers.

     

  • Revisiting the InformNapalm Story about the T-90 Near Lugansk International Airport

    This article by Burko News using the materials of Irakli Komaxidze of Informnapalm and translated by Eugenia Zlamanuk has always been vexing because it makes a claim regarding "Russian T-90 Tanks of the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade in Lugansk Region" yet there's no picture of any geolocated T-90 in Lugansk Region in the story.

    There's a photo taken from the now-deleted account of Russian tankman Vitalek Marakasov showing a soldier pointing to a road sign that has been geolocated in Lugansk Region (note that the name is mispelled within the article but the screenshots where it is visible indicates it is Marakasov):

     

    Second-photo

     

    Maybe it's self-evident to someone that the box thing — some kind of radar? electronic device to control things? is sitting on top of what looks like a tank edge — but I don't know, I've never heard that.

    UPDATE: Answer: a colleague told me it is AN AMMO BOX. However, you can see why it looks it has a computer/video item as it looks as if it has an indented screen. That's all. I asked this question to FIND OUT what it was from those knowledgeable, not to make any stupid claim.

    Here's what a Russian ammo box looks like:

    RussianAmmoBoxHP1

    I've look at lots of ammo boxes not only in Internet searches, I've seen them in plenty of videos. This one in the picture doesn't quite look like any I've seen. Can anyone precisely ID it?

    Furthermore, there were elements of this picture that made it seem like a computer screen even after many looks to the untrained eye. I will highlight to explain how that perception comes about because the trained eye may not understand it:

     

    LOOKS LIKE SCREEN

    These things in fact may merely be a the indented space to hold ammunition, and a strap, derp. I get it.

    The point is I am trying to make these conflict reports that come out and get no attention that don't seem persuasive more understandable to non-specialists by having more baby-steps in them to explain what's going on.

    The first job of any analysis with this entire story is to explain what the reasoning is to tie a T-90 to a scene without any T-90, and what that box is.

     

    So let's move on.

    First, let's find that road sign. The Panoramio photo used by Irakli is very blurry:

    Map1

     

    You can make out the word "Starobelsk" if you squint but it would be better to find the photo and the geolocation of that photo that always goes with Panoramio — which were not provided in the story, perhaps under the illusion that if you don't show this information, these things won't be deleted by the FSB — or at least you slow them down.

    But given that the name visible on the photo — "Bogdan Smykov" — enables you to find it eventually anyway, there's no reason not to supply it. Smykov has taken hundreds of photos of this region but this particular photo isn't showing on the map — you have to be sure to check off "Also show photos not selected for Google Earth."

    Then, unless you had the patience to page through hundreds of photos (I did that any way in case he had any more useful ones) you will find it is here on Panoramio.

    Here is the picture then, with a better resolution, and the title "New Lugansk Bypass".

    Starobelsk

     

    Here you can see Krasny Luch pointing left, Lugansk right, and Starobelsk forward.

    You still have to hunt for it because there are lots of signs like that, and as Burko points out, he thanks: "Artem Vasilenko of the informnapalm group for help in defining the locality" — you need a local to point out something like this often, just like if you showed me a picture of this sign of what we locals called "the Can of Worms" I would set you down here:

    ROC_CanofwormsEast

     

    So, here is the Lugansk road sign on Google maps. That wasn't supplied in the story, which is annoying, and I wish it would become standard to always supply although if you squint — you can find some coordinates on a screengrab of the road on a zoom-out and a very refined job of matching up trees and the sign board (called bigbord in Ukrainian Russian).

    Here you can see it's north of the Lugansk International Airport.

    Note that I don't have the exact location of the soldier on the zoom-out, just trying to show how the elements match to each other:

     

    Lugansk Airport and By-Pass

    It's a mere five kilometers from the Lugansk International Airport.

    BTW, in the Burko story, a slide is shown of the old airport which is now an aviation museum — visible as a large square on the map similar to the way the Donetsk International Airport looks — and a *different* bypass to the south, which is confusing, unless they want to show the whole area for some reason — but it's not clear why.

    This article says "Now we can know for sure that Russian T-90 tanks took part in battles near the Luhansk airport" — well, the soldier is near the airport and the dates might work.

    In a story like this, context that may be taken for granted by researchers but the average journalist, let alone researcher, will not immediately think of the battle of August 16 –  this soldier was recorded in a photograph five minutes away from the airport and may be related to the battle for the Lugansk International Airport on August 16 or some other day.

    Soldiers often upload their photographs much later, after their tour of duty is over, so an upload in October of a picture that doesn't look as if it is in the fall (someone could do Suncalc on it) means you still have to think of previous months.

    I don't have time to track down that box, but it could be something like no. 4, "video image  intelligence processing equipment" like this on the T90-MS, another later version of the Russian tank. I have no idea if this is portable and detachable.

    UPDATE: THIS WAS AN INVESTIGATION TRYING TO DETERMINE THE NATURE OF THE BOX, NOT AN AFFIRMATION OF WHAT IT WAS. People are very, very afraid to use hypotheses and logic and try to figure out something, rejecting invalid notions as they go along. They think either you have to be an expert on something and pronounce on it, or shut up.

    I don't see any T-90 tank proven in this article, so I look for reasons to prove it. I ask "What's this thing? What's that thing?" I try to find using existing diagrams of T-90 tanks what it might be.

    It turns out it's likely an ammo box — but it sure does look like a computer screen:

     

    Video Image

     

    But this is the kind of thing you need to explain, if the argument is "This box proves the T-90 is there at that location."

    I think the argumentation, however, judging from the story was that this man was in a unit with T-90s, which we could see in other pictures, therefore the T-90 was there in Ukraine. And that's something most people not immersed in conflictology are going to find tenuous.

    The information is that this picture was "posted on the VK social network page of a Russian tank trooper. The unit involved was the tank battalion of the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade (m/u 63354 based in Buinaksk, Dagestan."

    Well, naturally if there's a picture posted in a VK group for Russian tank troopers (it would be helpful to provide its exact name so the proof can be duplicated) then there's a strong suspicion that the T-90 could be in Ukraine, along with this soldier geolocated to Ukraine. It's certainly not implausible.

    Again, the evidence for this is tenuous — a picture from the now-deleted account in which Marakasov, wearing a helmet that has his tank number stencilled on it — known to have that sort of tank — is shown in a conversation as follows:

    Tanker Convo

     

    That's certainly tantalizing, as it sounds like it means "southeastern Ukraine," but most mainstream media editors would likely find this inconclusive, given that a Russian soldier could be in some other place, and still refer it to "over there," like the 1917 George M. Cohan song popular in World War I and World War II.

    We can go back to other circumstantial evidence, like photos that haven't been deleted, such as this one, but it's in Novocherkassk, Russia — at least a half day or more drive away, so that's still not proof of being in Ukraine — just likely it is moving in that direction:

    August 16 tank

     

    That is geolocated by The Interpreter here. It's still visible on Instagram. I saved a copy because unfortunately, the other photo in this story said to be closer, already in Rostov Region, is now deleted from Instagram, not in Google cache, nor archive.org (social media can seldom be found there) — or anywhere — so save your pictures, guys.

    Here's a useful archive of Lugansk International Airport. Remember the large explosion at the International Airport and how it was shelled out.

    Before (photo by Svyatoslav Pomozyan):

    Svyatoslav Pomozyan

    After:

    After Lugansk Intl Airport

    This is to establish that the battle was at the Lugansk International Airport August 16, 2014.

    So, unfortunately, this story is inconclusive. Through more trawling of the VK group or other members of this tank unit, maybe something more could be matched.

    This now well-known T-90 photo from InformNapalm on the dusty road is from Marakasov — and that's why it seems likely and why people want to pin it down.

      Fourth-photo

    But as @DaJeyPetros just said, he has looked all over, including the Lugansk International Airport north and south, and never found it.

     

     

    So it's still not confirmed. Yes, when you give links to social media accounts they can disappear — and disappear even without you doing that. Yes, these seems to be pictures taken from that account, but without the link, you'd have only the word of the researcher — and in this case, no one else has been able to see this outside this specialized Ukrainian news site's editor.

    And from experience I know that researchers like this huffily tell you to go fuck yourself if you don't believe them, and that you must be a Moscow shill, because they've seen more of the context and are immersed in it, and you haven't — and they can't show that, they say, without risking deletion of the account.

    And as I've repeatedly pointed out, there's a simple solution to this problem, which is to show the "find" to some credible journalist, preferably a mainstream media one, so that there is a "witness" to that social media event. Then that person can vouch for it when it is deleted. And yes, that's essentially what Irakli did by showing it to Burko, which was informed enough to grasp this process. But that's not like showing it to, oh, Shaun Walker of the Guardian.

    There could even be such an "ombudsman" created somewhere or some "buddy system" to do this. But no one seems interested in doing this because they want to establish their own reputations by fiat. In any event, "I do believe, I do believe," I'd just like to do due diligence so that others will.

    I do believe

    But I just don't see anything else to work with.

    Marakasov has another photo which they imply is taken in Ukraine, but it's also not geolocated, and these beverages don't seem to be distinctively local, but maybe someone will recognize something:

    Beverage

  • LNR Tanks in Lugansk from Russia?

    Here's a video uploaded January 3, 2015 that people implied was part of a newer invasion force this month:

     

     

    But it snowed in Lugansk three days before this, and the snow couldn't have likely melted completely that fast:

     

     

    I geolocated this here on Yandex maps.

    It's on Frunze St in Lugansk.

    Another Twitter used added that the weather has been freezing those last few days:

     

     

    So — found armor, just not found in January, probably more like November or earlier. This needs to be tied to some battle earlier or some convoy earlier, then.

    The soldier smoking the cigarette has no clouds of breath around him unless he's exhalating, so the weather isn't that cold. But the trees are barren and the sky has that wintery look.

    The first snow in Lugansk was November 26, 2014 a day of heavy fighting in Lugansk Region. So it was earlier.

    The geolocation clues are here, where a bus stop sign for 126 Frunze and the distinctive bluish building can be seen:

     

    Frunze and Blue

      Frunze 2

    Here's the white house on the right:

    Frunze 126

    Here's the blue building on the left:

    Blue Bldg Lugansk

     

    So why is this Russian armor? The video's title in Russian translates to "LNR Tanks in Lugansk" — so that doesn't necessarily mean "Russian from Russia" – it could mean "pinched from Ukrainian Armed Forces."

    But the tank looks like a Russian T-90:

     

    Shapes T-90

     

    T-90 blown up

    T-90A 2013 Moscow Victory

    That's a T-90A in May 2013 at the Victory Day parade, so there are modifications to the side panels.

    Here's a detailed description from a blogger.

     So: I don't know, confirmation needed.

    The "Battle for Lugansk" began August 16, 2014, 100 years after World War I when T-90s were ferried to Novocherkassk, as an Instagram's photo illustrates. Let's look at him:

    Armor is a common sight in Novocherkassk, he says, and here is a video of a BTR:

    Newchek61 on Instagram 2015-01-11 05-57-44

     Then he shows the T-90s being hauled in his little Vine here:

    Newchek61 2

     

    Well, that shows them in their own country, which, as the trolls will tell you, they have a right to be. How do they get to Lugansk, then?

    There was a video posted at the time and then removed from many accounts titled "Lugansk. Fierce Battle for the City":

     

    The video was later said to be a fake for that date, and filmed a month earlier; there wasn't a full moon on August 16 yet the video has one — there was a 3/4 moon.

    Full Moon

    So much for that video for that battle date.

    As reported,  here's NYT's Andrew Roth reporting some armor rolling toward the border then:

     

     

    …and so did Shaun Walker — noting that it sure didn't look like humanitarian aid. (BTW, here's a good example of why Walker is not a "Moscow shill" even though he is partial to Lenin statues):

     

    But no T-90s spotted.

    Burko News (Irakli Komaxidze of InformNapalm) came up with a photo of a T-90 uploaded October 2014 by the now-deleted Vkontakte account of Vitalek Markasov which they and EuromaidanPR said "proved" that the Russian tanks were in Lugansk,and took part in the battle of the Lugansk airport, except this photo has never been geolocated:

     

     

     

    As my colleague Pierre Vaux noted, if you visit Google Earth, which has been updated lately, you can see the Lugansk Airport is showing now actually with a smoking, burning vehicles. Wild, eh? (39.3724033,48.4183844)

    Lugansk Intl Airport August 2014

    Lugansk Airport Smoking

     

    Maybe the place to look for the location of that T-90 found by Informnapalm from Markesov is out by the airport in fact, around tracks like this (39.38007028740163,48.41663299842382)

    Track by Airport

    that have poles like this behind them:

    Poles Airport

    The pole isn't in the right position nor is the track necessarily the right one given the proximity to the road, but I'm saying that this area may contain the scene.

    So if those were T-90s ferried, then they'd get to the airport in time for the battle August 16, then maybe be around the area still throughout the fall.

    If you take the Krasnodon route, it's 216 kilometers from Novocherkassk to Lugansk, so, a day of driving.  Shaun said he saw armor August 14, but these were APCs (BTRs), not tanks.

    Here's another Informnapalm story on T-90s about a unit from Dagestan near Ukraine's border.

  • BPM-97s Far From Border – Lugansk News Today

    Lugansk News Today has posted a video of the BPM-97 Vystrel border-patrol vehicles that are a ways from the Ukrainian-Russian border — 17 kilometers to be exact — right here on Google Maps.

    Russia has an expansive notion of "border patrol" to include "inside other people's countries."

     

     

    The geolocation is premised on noticing the fighter-jet monument on the horizon — good eye, Lugansk News Today!

    Krasnodon_Plane

     

    The pink building in the video is said to be a facility taken over by Russian-backed separatists.

    I looked along M04 myself for this scene, since the main road is usually used for armor like this, but didn't find it because the trees disguise it.

    If the driver is headed in a direction where the jet monument is on his left, then the pink building is on his right, then he is heading away from Lugansk, toward Izvarino — although there's a jump in the video at 0:04 which is the sort of thing that undermines the case for a geolocation. I'm also not seeing where the outer pink shed — a bus stop? – is on the map then. Does it work like this?

    Pole Shed

     

    If the vehicle in the video is moving from Lugansk to Krasnodon, it could be headed back to the Russian border at Izvarino or just roaming the area.

    Lugansk News Today has a story about how these BPM-97s ostensibly relate to the hit on Batman and a private military contractor run by a former general, Evgeny Vagner. This isn't plausible to me, because if you wanted to commit an assassination, you wouldn't ride around in vehicles that obviously are going to stand out and be noticed as belonging only to Russian border guards and no one else. You'd ride around in a Toyota beater like everyone else.

    On the other hand, given the number of people they killed – 6 — who themselves were in an armored vehicle, maybe they were in some kind of heavy-duty armored vehicle themselves such as to run the thermobaric weapons.

    I view the Vagner script as injected into this Batman story — it's very detailed and ready-made and comes from Batman's VK group among other sources — and it could be injected to hide the real GRU fingerprints on the hit (the notorious sadist Milchakov pitches this story on TV, so is it really about him? He's one of the few survivors left close to Bednov) or simply overlay Plotnitsky's hand. I haven't found the references to Vagner's past jobs in the South or North Caucasus military districts but maybe this will turn up.

    So according to this narrative, the "Vagner Group" has now surrounded the separatist's base in Krasnodon because they have to "round them up" to bring them under the heal of Plotnitsky's unified army.

    So here's a separatist nicknamed Varyag ("Varangian") telling a story of the base, named Odessa, being surrounded:

     

     

     

     And certainly there are a number of fighters in white winter uniforms in this video, if  not "surrounding" at least "patrolling":

     

    Snow Soldier 2

    Snow Soldier 3

    Snow Soldier

     

    Reminds me of the GI Joes my brother and I used to play with — Winter Patrol was my favourite:

     

    Winter GI

     

    I think social media is wonderful. It really enables the creation of story-telling of the sort in the old day the GRU you could manage through coopted "agents of influence" in the German or French or British press, or through shadowy emigre groups' newsletters and such. Now, nearly in real-time, if you want to support the narrative of "Russia takes control of its own," you can do it handily and credibly.

    The notion that "Russia must rein in its own" after "ops" is deeply held among emigres and Western journalists based on old CIA stories where it is imagined that there are "rogue elements" that Moscow "must control" and they "must liquidate" certain agents that "know too much." There's an alternative to this more dramatic scenario, however, which is that everything is going according to plan, the rogues aren't so rogue but acting a part, and the co-opted locals made to feel as if they are now ruler of the roost with Moscow gold may be next.

    What I haven't heard yet in this war, but was in every emigre story repertoire in the 1960s and 1970s, and which I personally saw re-surface in the 2000s in Uzbekistan around the "suicide girl" story, is the fable of the secret agent sent to assassinate someone in the opposition or emigration. At the last minute, he has a change of heart, and then tells his victim, "I was sent to kill you, but help me defect, and you will be spared." He then proceeds to become a double agent.

    What I love about these stories lately is the acronym "ChVK" (private military company). It's like "Cheka". It reminds me of the 1990s, when the KGB were "privatized" and fanned out and became the "security" or "human resources directors" for things like Most or NTV or Menatep. "Private" is a relative concept in Russia especially when the "privates" are closed to "the organs".

    News Front is not an operation to accept just one side of these murky stories, so there's now another interview with our friend Kiselyev with the red-star cap who is the narrator in the training exercise on the base geolocated outside of Lugansk.

    He says there is "no internecine warfare" but only "reformation of the armed units to fulfill the tasks set by the command" i.e. Plotnitsky.

     

     

    He says there was a "provocation by the VSU" (Ukrainian Armed Forces) who tried to "rock the situation with private military companies." He says they were active around Stanitsa Luganskaya and fired at populated areas — the old mantra of the separatists which disguises their own engagement in such activities quite often.

    I don't know whether we're supposed to believe that Ukraine now has border vehicles just like Russia's to supply to their ChVKs, but there's no evidence of that at all.

    At 1:29, Kiselyev uses one of my favourite Soviet expressions: "Ozhidaetsya provokatsiya." "A provocation is expected."

    Near Novokievka, there was a large "sabotage group" active, so the whole area had to be reinforced and surrounded "so that civilians wouldn't suffer."

    That's here, about 60 kilometers to the north of Krasnodon — so a little threadbare as a story for the vehicles around "Odessa" — where there's a really handy border crossing into Russia with tall ridges to watch the action and a narrowing of the river where the Derkul River from Russia meets the Don River. The Derkul looks pretty shallow but the Don there looks fairly deep, even if Russia looks like a stone's throw away, almost as if a child could go across in a raft, although I just don't know how treacherous these waters are.

    This video has a taciturn guy on the left who looks grumpy throughout the video until 2:42 where he is introduced as the commander of Odessa who is supposed to be surrounded and "reined in" now.  He doesn't look exactly cool and comfortable, and blinks a lot, but he replies, when the reporter asks "So all these reports about in-fighting aren't true?"

    "In a normal unit that isn't caught up in some bad things, a priori there can't be any talk of a conflict situation."

    "Bad things" might include drug running across rivers and such, I guess. He explains the activity visible in the video as "training".

    At 4:49, Comrade Kiselyev makes a threat against Oleg Lyashko, a notorious leader of the Radical Party known for his vigilantism, who includes among those "little people" who are trying to "sow discord."  He also invokes the names of Avakov and Poroshenko.

    "They will answer for this," he says.